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Steve Shaw Computer Services  Armstrong & Co Solicitors


Poll: Which of the pools options set out in February 2009 do you prefer?
This poll is closed.
Option 1: Leisure & Housing on existing pools site (demolition of the pools frontage) 16.94% 21 16.94%
Option 2: Leisure on the existing pools with the existing frontage. Housing in Louise House and Willow Way 79.03% 98 79.03%
Option 3: Leisure centre in Willow Way. Housing on the site of the existing pool including the frontage building 4.03% 5 4.03%
Total 124 votes 100%
* You voted for this item. [Show Results]

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Pool Poll: Which pool option do you prefer?
Author Message
michael


Posts: 3,221
Joined: Mar 2005
Post: #1
07-02-2009 10:17 PM

While the discussion continues on http://www.se23.com/forum/showthread.php?tid=650 I would be interested to do a very simple test of SE23.com users favourite options laid out in http://www2.lewisham.gov.uk/lbl/document...050209.pdf

This is your chance to have your say without having to justify your point of view.

Let's keep discussion to the other thread and just have the voting here. Depending on how many people vote it may be worth passing on the results to the mayor before 25th February.

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michael


Posts: 3,221
Joined: Mar 2005
Post: #2
08-02-2009 10:38 AM

Thanks to admin for changing this to an anonymous poll as was my original intention.

Please rest assured that your votes are now secret and apologies to those who voted previously for making the votes publicly visible.

Please keep voting for the option that you think is best.

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shzl400


Posts: 729
Joined: Oct 2007
Post: #3
09-02-2009 01:25 PM

Any chance of a "fourth option" - the idea of doing something else with Louise House, other than housing?

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Satchers


Posts: 262
Joined: Nov 2007
Post: #4
09-02-2009 03:07 PM

SHZL400
That is possible with any of these options.....

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steveb


Posts: 113
Joined: Nov 2007
Post: #5
13-02-2009 09:34 AM

I do object to the FHS using this poll as justification for their support for option2. They complained about the quality of the consultation by the council last time, and now quote a poll of 60 people as representative of the views of residents.

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michael


Posts: 3,221
Joined: Mar 2005
Post: #6
13-02-2009 10:52 AM

Steveb,
Last time we were also criticised for not organising our own poll despite the council organising one for the whole community.

No poll will accurately represent the views of the local community but we were asked to respond to the council within 7 days of the options being presented. There does appear to be a general consensus amongst the community and that is worth presenting as part of our argument. This is not just the view of 14 people who met at my house on Tuesday, but a larger group of people.

I woul be disappointed if the mayow felt that he had to organise a public cunsultation to decide if the community preferred 1,2, or 3. I think the preference is very clear.

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stevegrindlay


Posts: 104
Joined: Oct 2006
Post: #7
13-02-2009 11:07 AM

steveb, the poll now stands at 90 people; how many do you think should respond before the result can be regarded as statistically valid?


For a random selection of items on local history visit my blog at:
http://sydenhamforesthillhistory.blogspot.com/
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robin orton


Posts: 716
Joined: Feb 2009
Post: #8
13-02-2009 11:48 AM

I would be very disappointed if the mayor didn't initiate proper community consultation. The views of amenity societies, special interest groups and those of us with the time and inclination to participate in online chat shoud not be taken to represent the views of the wider community, including existing and potential (e.g. young families) pool users.

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andrewr


Posts: 296
Joined: May 2006
Post: #9
13-02-2009 12:00 PM

Steve - This poll will never be statistically valid because it can only reflect the views of a self selected group of respondents. However, the Council will be well aware that that group includes significant number sof local opinion formers and they would be unwise to ignore it. On the other hand, based on past experience any 'consultation' undertaken by the Council is likely to be at least as statistically invalid because the knowledge of the majority of those consulted will be limited to the carefully selected information fed to them in the consultation which has been slanted to get the desired result. Even the Council recognise this otherwise the Mayor would not have opted for refurbishment last time round. I won't pre-judge the effect of this poll on the outcome of the Mayor and Cabinet meeting other than to say that it would be surprising if it results in an unconditional push towards Option 3!

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stevegrindlay


Posts: 104
Joined: Oct 2006
Post: #10
13-02-2009 12:32 PM

I'll admit, andrewr, that I have little understanding, and less interest, in statistics but surely there is an element of self-selection in all polls; people choose whether or not they want to take part. Is this poll significantly less valid than, say, a YouGov poll, or even being approached in the street?


For a random selection of items on local history visit my blog at:
http://sydenhamforesthillhistory.blogspot.com/
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andrewr


Posts: 296
Joined: May 2006
Post: #11
13-02-2009 12:54 PM

Hi Steve
At the risk of boring people - yes, this poll is less valid than a YouGov poll or a properly conducted poll of people in the street. In a properly conducted poll, pollsters are given a cross section of people to go out and find who are representative of the desired population to be polled. In our case that could be, say, one for each 7 digit postcode in Forest Hill and Sydenham or three males and three females from each of a range of age bands who live within 2 miles of the Pools. Once they have got sufficient responses to meet each requirement they then reject any further responses in that group. Some groups can be easy to fill, others more difficult, but once all the results are in, they can be said to be representative of the population of interest within known statistical limits of error.

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stevegrindlay


Posts: 104
Joined: Oct 2006
Post: #12
13-02-2009 01:07 PM

Thank you, andrew; serves me right for asking, I suppose. Anyway, I still believe the result so far is indicative of people's views, including those I've spoken to who come nowhere near the internet.


For a random selection of items on local history visit my blog at:
http://sydenhamforesthillhistory.blogspot.com/
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Satchers


Posts: 262
Joined: Nov 2007
Post: #13
13-02-2009 02:37 PM

From my recollection, and before Louise House was listed, the Council were prepared to use the 300 or so (?) responses to the July 2008 consultation as a reason for making a decision on the previous set of HLM options, or they would have been if the votes had not been split almost exactly one third for each option and then if Louise House hadn't been listed. They didn't seem to have a problem that the majority view probably hadn't bothered to vote because if you didn't agree with any of them your only option, was to join the Save the Face of Forest Hill Campaign or go away.

It is useful and helpful to see what people are voting in this poll as one of the indicators of local views that is possible in a very short time period. But even an organised consultation by the Council is not very representative when only a couple of hundred people submit their views to a very limited set of questions.

We need to be pushing for proper consultation (engagement/discussion?) at the right time and NOT a repeat of last summers approach.

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kipya


Posts: 62
Joined: Feb 2008
Post: #14
14-02-2009 01:28 PM

I'm not sure what statistically valid means in this instance. Any sample is only as good as its degree of representation of the parent population. In the case of opinion surveys the only things that counts is the effect they have - that is in the way they are interpreted and the consequent response to them.

Clearly if one agrees with the outcome of a survey then it's a jolly good thing. If one disagrees then it can be written off as "unrepresentative". In neither case does anyone know what a larger set of people might say, and the only way to settle it would be a plebiscite. Even then people would complain about low turn out.

So what we have is a reflection of a number of people who are concerned about FH and, what appears to me, a Council which does not look at the concerns of people whom it is elected to 'represent'.

My impression is that LBL is more concerned about meeting central government housing 'targets' than troubling about the wishes of its electors. It is playing to an audience outside of Lewisham. This could explain the awful, manipulative "consultations" undertaken by the Council and an apparent refusal to deal with the issue of the pool in a sensible and responsible manner - we are on to 'consultation' number 3 now, and yet again there is a head of steam worked up against it.

I think that the FHS survey was probably useful in reflecting the views of a number of people and I am all in favour of any action which pushes Councils towards a clearer, more honest articulation of its policy decisions.

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michael


Posts: 3,221
Joined: Mar 2005
Post: #15
24-02-2009 11:05 PM

Results of the poll sent to the mayor:

Quote:
Dear Steve,

Prior to tomorrow's meeting I wanted to share with you the results of our survey on SE23.com. Of the 122 people responding 78% were in favour of option 2, with only 4% backing option 3. In addition we currently have 61 supporters of option 2 on Facebook.

This represents just a small number of people in the local area, but together with the support of the Forest Hill Society, Sydenham Society, Tewkesbury Lodge Estate Residents' Association, and Save the Face of Forest Hill it appears that a general consensus has been reached.

I wanted to send you these indicative figures prior to tomorrow's meeting when I hope that Hilary Satchwell from the Forest Hill Society will be able to address you and the cabinet.

I look forward to your decision tomorrow and hope that it favours an early implementation of option 2 and a secure future for Forest Hill town centre.

Regards,
Michael Abrahams
Vice-Chairman, Forest Hill Society

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Foresters


Posts: 207
Joined: May 2006
Post: #16
25-02-2009 11:59 AM

Regarding the meeting tonight, is this actually fully open to the public? In other words, if loads of people turn up, is there room (or any obligation) to accommodate everyone?

Just wondering what the plan is...

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michael


Posts: 3,221
Joined: Mar 2005
Post: #17
25-02-2009 12:04 PM

There will be room for everybody. But this is not a meeting that will allow people to speak from the floor except by special invitation.

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Foresters


Posts: 207
Joined: May 2006
Post: #18
25-02-2009 12:13 PM

Thanks - is there any media coverage planned of what is shaping up to be an historic decision, do you know?

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brian


Posts: 2,002
Joined: Apr 2005
Post: #19
25-02-2009 01:09 PM

Seems a very low percentage of people who use this web site actually voted, or am I wrong.
I seem to recall seeing about 600 plus on se23.com , people who actually voted less than 25%.
Not sure what this implies , if indeed anything.

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michael


Posts: 3,221
Joined: Mar 2005
Post: #20
25-02-2009 01:45 PM

There are actually 2,700 registered members on SE23.com, but 122 people represents significantly more than the number of people who I see posting over a few months, I suspect it is a high proportion of the regular users.

There were 600 responses to the council consultation in the summer which had leaflets delivered to most houses in three wards (about 20,000 people I think). I think a survey of 100 people, with an overwhelming view, is a good guide for the mayor to the results on any additional consutlation he wishes to do over the next few months.

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