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House Prices
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Gep


Posts: 60
Joined: Aug 2007
Post: #1
14-06-2008 08:18 AM

I was checking the Forest Hill Central website and I've noticed that the cheapest 1 bedroom flat is priced ?250000.
I've checked a few properties website and I saw that with ?180000 in Forest Hill you can buy a 1 bedroom Victorian conversion or even a 3 bedroom in an ex-council block!
Aren't the prices totally out of the market?

They keep remind us on the telly everyday that the house prices are going down, but that doesn't seem the case with Forest Hill. By the way, that's a good thing for me, but I just don't understand what makes our neighbourhood so special.

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nevermodern


Posts: 653
Joined: Feb 2007
Post: #2
14-06-2008 09:14 AM

I think it's been mentioned on another thread that they're having difficulty in shifting those flats at that price, and have actually applied for planning permission to make the two-beds into one beds in the hope that they can shift them easier.

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Snazy


Posts: 1,495
Joined: Jan 2008
Post: #3
14-06-2008 09:17 AM

I think its also fair to consider the quality of the buildings too. Some of the conversions around FH as poor quality, and more like rabbit hutches.
Given the choice of similarly priced places, I know which I would have.

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PVP


Posts: 271
Joined: Mar 2005
Post: #4
14-06-2008 11:23 AM

Forest Hill prices do not seem to have suffered like other places. I think this is because this was historically a relatively good value area and is generally seen as on the up so whilst other places were stupidly overpriced, we just may pause for a while.

Plus the tube is on the way....

As for Centraaaal, I love it, Can't sell the 1 beds for ?250k... so let's try and sell even more 1 beds at ?250k! The prices will need to come down unless the market magically starts motoring along again in the next 6 months. When is the completion date??

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brian


Posts: 2,002
Joined: Apr 2005
Post: #5
14-06-2008 12:21 PM

I am also very surprised they are not facing reality and reducing their prices. I could be wrong but believe must of The Print House ( a simalar up market devolpment ) is unoccupied.
I am sure they will have to face realityeventually.

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blushingsnail


Posts: 363
Joined: Dec 2005
Post: #6
14-06-2008 08:57 PM

It was actually the 2-bedroom flats Berkeley Homes said there hadn't been much interest in, which is why they've applied to make more 1-bedroom flats instead.

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PVP


Posts: 271
Joined: Mar 2005
Post: #7
16-06-2008 08:22 AM

I got the 2 bed being overpriced... but so are the one beds..... come on, would anyone pay ?250k for a flat there?? It is at least 20% overvalued in the current market.

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michael


Posts: 3,196
Joined: Mar 2005
Post: #8
16-06-2008 09:29 AM

2 bed flats in FH Central start at ?315k. The only comparable prices on findaproperty.com are in Vantage Heights - another new development.
FH Central have sold 6 units in the development, 5 of which are 1 bedroom flats.

Average price of a 2 bed flat in SE23 according to findaproperty.com is ?250k, for a 1 bed flat the average is apparently ?200k. But why would anybody commit to buying a house above the market average which will not be finished until next year when prices are expected to drop by 10%-20% across the market as a whole?

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CAW


Posts: 32
Joined: Jun 2008
Post: #9
16-06-2008 02:08 PM

Well... Just to throw in my tuppence... I recently bought at The Printworks, agreed last summer but only moved in 3 months ago. Mine is a two bed, of similar size to the Central apartments. I purchased at ?220k and now it has been valued at ?250k - I think FH will ride out the storm quite well - especially with the tube coming. But they will never get ?315k + for the station flats!

btw - none of the flats at the Printworks are empty, just the live/work units they built below, it was always optimistic to think a restaurant would want to open down a quiet road!

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nevermodern


Posts: 653
Joined: Feb 2007
Post: #10
16-06-2008 02:31 PM

The live/work unit thing is interesting, ie the extent to which they're seen as a way forward. This piece on live/work and havelock walk is quite interesting, I think.

http://www.liveworknet.com/live-work-sec75-1.html

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reverendlionelblair


Posts: 47
Joined: Apr 2008
Post: #11
19-06-2008 09:10 PM

Not that I'm biased about this or anything but just because FH is slightly less over-priced than everywhere else does not mean that it will avoid the price slowdown, it just means that it wont happen as fast as it has in places like East Dulwich and as sharply as in places like Clahm.

Bottom line, banks dont want to lend, people cant afford to buy, sale begat sale and price drop begat price drop. Hello housing slump.

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brian


Posts: 2,002
Joined: Apr 2005
Post: #12
20-06-2008 07:06 AM

The Reverend has hit the nail on the head. Prices must come down in SE 23 , as long as not too drastic should be no problem and will eventually allow new buyers to purchase.
It would be better if they dropped quickly rather than over 2 or so years but the market as usual will dictate.

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shzl400


Posts: 729
Joined: Oct 2007
Post: #13
20-06-2008 08:50 AM

It also depends on the prices/sizes overall of housing in the area in the first place. The same percentage fall on a 1 bed flat and a 4-bed house are very different in cash terms.

For those looking to move up the housing ladder, I believe it presents an opportunity that has been denied in recent years because the jumps have been simply too large.

The problem is liquidity in the market caused by the need for a chain and the bottom end of that chain is missing as prices at the bottom end are still too high and mortgage lenders are becoming far more cautious.

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CAW


Posts: 32
Joined: Jun 2008
Post: #14
20-06-2008 09:36 AM

Although I take your point reverand - I believe that there are now too many individuals with the cash to buy property to allow a callapse as we have seen in the past. Whether these people are individuals who have benefitted from the property boom, buy-to-let investors or businesses, I'm not saying it's a good thing that people are priced out of the market by business/buy-to-let - its just reality.

I have a few friends in different fields of finance and the general thought is that we will see a maximum of a 10% drop in prices over the next two years in London, this only goes as far as to wipe out last years 10% growth. The market only needs to stagnate enough to scrape a few more people onto the bottom rung.

The only people in danger here are those that have bought within the last year and have a 95/100/110% mortgage - if this is you - beware!!

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mambo66


Posts: 6
Joined: Nov 2007
Post: #15
23-06-2008 10:05 PM

Hi,

I must say I believe CAW to be wrong. Even with a drop of just 10%, and taking pay rises into account, house prices are just too high to be supported by the general economy. Prices that are 5 or 6 times one's yearly salary are just an unhealthy peak that will come down (in a healthy economy these things must be balanced, otherwise they don't work). One other element is the price rises of petrol ($140 a barrell and climbing!!!) and food (up 24% in one year). These are not things to overlook. They are very steep increases which everyone is feeling and they concern issues related to food and fuel shortages that are affecting the world, let alone just Britain! I'm even wondering whether we should start being concerned about more serious problems... Anyway, historically house prices go up and down in waves which result in an average more modest increase unless there is a crisis such as a war. High house prices have been supported by a period of great wealth and relatively few problems. Things are different now and there is no point pretending they're not.

Anyway, it is in the interest of people in finance to say everything will go well, so they are not reliable sources of information. Sources must be mixed and evaluated critically.

All the best

M66

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davidl


Posts: 180
Joined: Oct 2007
Post: #16
23-06-2008 10:17 PM

Quote:
Anyway, historically house prices go up and down in waves which result in an average more modest increase unless there is a crisis such as a war. High house prices have been supported by a period of great wealth and relatively few problems. Things are different now and there is no point pretending they're not.


Widespread ownership of the family home is surely quite a modern aspiration, and not something on which there is a huge amount of history. Seems a funny situation when the government is (on the one hand) doing everything possible to fight general price inflation while (on the other) trying to convince people that there's no real cause for panic because the value of their homes is starting to stagnate. House price rises seem to be a strange anomaly - inflation which is welcomed and even encourage by large swathes of the population.

The anglo-saxon preoccupation with owning the roof over one's head is mystifying to some of our continental friends - but with their relative security of tenure and a generally benevolent regime around rental tenants, this is hardly surprising. Quietly the government seems to have been improving the lot of rental tenants over the last few years (deposits going to escrow is a part of this) and while there's still a long way to go, we might be starting to see the start of a shift away from a blind worship of property ownership.

Anyway, going back to the start of the thread - that much money for one of those tiny poky characterless flats is obscene, IMHO.

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Forester


Posts: 15
Joined: Feb 2006
Post: #17
24-06-2008 07:29 AM

They may advertise at those prices but what they actually sell them for will likely be a very different story. New build flats in Docklands have been selling at 10-20% discounts to advertised prices.

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Londondrz


Posts: 1,538
Joined: Apr 2006
Post: #18
24-06-2008 08:04 AM

People will pay for something they want if it is at the asking price or over. If you have just left a pockey 1 bed in Fulham and see a 2 bed in Forest hill for slightly less the chances are you are going to go for it unless you speak to someone who knows the area who can point out there are much better options locally.

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CAW


Posts: 32
Joined: Jun 2008
Post: #19
24-06-2008 10:02 AM

I agree with David to a degree - I think that the British have become too accustomed to the idea of owning property. Never have we known the masses owning so much property in history! I'm afraid we are heading towards a have's and have not's system again where property will help create a bigger divide between the rich and poor.

My point was that a nurse simply cannot afford even a ?250k shared ownership property in London, but property tycoon's, property developer?s etc can - they can buy them up and let them out as investments. I think the commodities market is currently in a bubble which will burst when the panic is over in the money markets. It's the stock traders that cause the overinflated prices, people are too quick to jump on the doom and gloom wagon - it makes better press!

But if you saw the papers breakdown of prices yesterday you would have seen that FH prices only fell at a rate of 1.3% last month, much lower than many areas, and comparatively a small amount of money in real terms. By 2012, with the olympics and the east London line extention, FH prices will be up 20% on today.

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michael


Posts: 3,196
Joined: Mar 2005
Post: #20
24-06-2008 10:39 AM

1.3% fall was the average across Lewisham and may not reflect the situation in Forest Hill. Forest Hill has performed better in this contracting market (people are looking for good value and can find it in Forest Hill).

April 2008 figures:
Average flat in Forest Hill ?236k http://www.home.co.uk/guides/house_price...lastyear=1
Average flat in East Dulwich ?265k http://www.home.co.uk/guides/house_price...lastyear=1

April 2007 figures:
Average flat in Forest Hill ?195k
Average flat in East Dulwich ?255k

According to this site the average semi in Forest Hill has now passed the value of a semi in East Dulwich, although I suspect these figures are not statistically significant.

Average Property Selling Prices in Forest Hill (?000's)

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