I have heard from Lewisham that they are expecting a continuation of the high demand for reception places over the next few years and they are looking at where further expansions/bulge classes can be made.

I would say that you need to have the 6 closest schools to you (as the crow flies) on your list and then to rank them in order of preference, ignoring the distance. Unless any of the 6 are terrible I wouldn't take the risk of not including any of the closest 6. The only other reason you might 'not' include one of the closest 6 is that you are a large distance away from a consistently small catchment school that you know is 'not' taking a bulge class. (e.g. for where we live that would mean don't bother applying to Fairlawn whatever you might think of it)

You 'should' then get the your highest preference school of the 6 that has capacity to take you. Which to be honest could be any of them depending on where you live and where others who are applying live.

Lewisham may not know for definite where the bulge classes are going to go for next year by the 15th Feb but I would hope they would have a pretty good idea by the new year and the headteachers should be able to tell you by then.

I have heard that Beecroft (in Brockley/Crofton Park) was undersubscribed last year and had spare places.

P.S. I've hardly heard any bad things about any of the schools in Forest Hill and think we're very lucky on the whole - as long as you can get a place that is! Good luck!