I certainly agree 30% on sensible properties like multi-bed house. But I think a larger fall on flats will take place partly based on what happened last time. In a property slump, flats don?t sell. Does anyone remember the years large sections of canary wharf sat empty in the early 80?s. I did see a paper a while back which spilt out the housing stock in the early 80?s with proper homes falling 25-35% at one end of the scale and tiny 1 beds and studios falling 50-75%. I will post the link if I can find it, it was from one of the independent economic houses.

The reason I think it will be sub ?100k is based on what I am already seeing from better properties in the local area. And while there is the point about being DIY free they are also no place to raise a family and they have a service charge you have no control over. If you can already buy a house for ?150k, I?m not sure why you would buy a 1-bed flat for the same money just to avoid a 10 minute walk in the morning.
Actually I would suggest if you are keen to own one get your mortgage approved or a letter from your bank if you?re a cash buyer and email the guy at FHC and put in an offer to buy off plan for ?150k. You never know. Here is the guys email. Jonathan.Wicks@berkeleygroup.co.uk

I still think the media are exhagerating the house prices crash. I work in Canary Wharf and even in the current market I can only dream to buy a 1 bedroom flat. Nothing for less than half a million. Same story for Central London. If this is a crash...

Where are these 3 bedroom houses selling for 150k!? haha. As far as I can work out a 3 bedroom house in SE23 that is nice enough to be called a family home are generally advertised at in excess of 300k, up to 500k.

People aren't knocking 50% - 75% off their asking prices!

Show me a three bed house for 150k. There aren't any. You're only just starting to get one-bed flats in SE23 for that much, on asking price at least. And even then, they're not very good one-bed flats.

I'm sure if the FHC flats do drop to 150 they'll get sold, provided people can get finance.

James, totally agree mate, not sure what housing price figures people are looking at, but I have not seen the massive decline spoken of.

I reckon FHC (as baboonery says) will easily sell for 150, if not a fair bit more. Confidence is what its all about, and I dont think that will stay down for too long.
Then there are the cash buyers too. ?150-?180 is a brilliant price, which is why I dont see them dipping there yet.

Current pricing is

Beds.........................?k
..1.........................250
..2.........................395

http://www.berkeleyhomes.co.uk/index.cfm...ailability

You can get 3 bed flats for around ?150k in Forest Hill:

http://www.findaproperty.com/displayprop...id=1666877 This flat actually looks a lot nicer than I would have expected at the price.

There are studio flats available in Forest Hill for ?60k http://www.findaproperty.com/displayprop...id=3011271

If you want a 3 bed house you are looking at more than ?200k

However, Forest Hill Central will be a relatively high-spec development and the properties above do not represent the average property prices in the area. But there are some bargains out there.

Michael - that does look like a bargain 3 bedroom flat for the price! Don't think it compares at all with the flats they are proposing in FHC, but gives something to think about. And with the greatest respect for the auctioneers of the studio they are publishing a guide price to attract - not the price they expect (even for that place!).

I rent in Forest Hill and really love the area and would want to buy here. Personally I haven't seen the advertised prices fall very much in FH over the past 12 months. I agree people can put in a good discounted offer for a place, but best to wait 5-6 months yet. It's just there is nothing shifting! I doubt there are many people who will sell unless they really have too in the current market. I predict Autumn for prices to level off.

Just as a point - I have no intention of having a family in the next few years, like 100,000's of other Londoners so there is definitely a market for 1 beds. I think there is fundamentally a limit on how low prices can fall on any properties in an area with a nice vibe that are so close to Central London, and with a position on the tube map in 2010.

Also, dare I say I quite like looking at the slow progress on FCH each morning from the train platform!

Hi FH1, this might be a useful link based on what you asked:

James your last response is very interesting. I did think that you rather naively misunderstood how the market works when you talk about the ?price?. But I think you get the issues, your just not putting it together. Like you rightly say it?s asking prices that are sticky, this is not a true measure of the market, its just a measure of denial. A house can sit in the Estate agents window at 5% off 2007 price as long as it likes, but the true market what actually changes hands.

The only stuff actually being sold is going for a lot less than the estate agent windows would have you believe. You laugh at me for suggesting that you could get a 3-bed house 10 minutes walk from the station for ?150k. But a colleague of mine completed on a 3-bed property on Dacres road for slightly less than that yesterday. It would have been in the estate agents window for an awful lot more, but my colleague did not think it was worth that, nor evidently nor did the seller actually expect to get it.

If you want to keep tabs on ?asking prices? take a look at http://www.propertysnake.co.uk/site/postcode/se23

Although its worth repeating these are the house that are chasing the market down by always lowering their asking prices behind the market. The stuff that actually sells is priced down ahead of the market.

And respectfully, we did not have a 7 year boom that is going to all blow over in just a couple months. Its your future so you must do as you judge right, but I would caution you against buying in 5-6 months unless you offer an amount that factors in the rest of the fall. Just my opinion. I say it because I honestly think it will help you in the long term.

Dan I agree with your summary 100%. Prices of houses unsold or even sold subject to conract mean nothing . The only price that matters is the prices that properties are actually being sold for.

Out of interest which house in Dacres are you refering to.

I noticed some activity last week one morning.

At least there was someone driving the crane!

Have just walked past FHC to see that there is GALLONS of water streaming down through the building. Have called Lewisham Council, who suggested I call the local police. Any other suggestions??

Phew - don't panic. I just took another walk down there and called the 24hr security number - they've sent someone to have a look and fix the problem....

Let us hope they have a water metre.

Seems there has been water pouring from somewhere in there for weeks. Each time we walk past in the evening with the dogs you could hear it.

As for the response of "call the police" thats what I got the other night when I phoned Thames water.
"its in an empty plot of land, no house just a hole in the ground now very full of water"

TW "im sorry we cant turn off someones water supply...."

"hello..... there is NO someone, its LAND!"

TW "you will have to inform the police, then we will attend"

"hello police, can you attend a water leak please"

Police "certainly, call Thames water back and give them this CAD number, then we will come out when they are there...."

Emailed the council the next morning, was cut off by the following afternoon!

As for progress on the site of FHC, I see some nice new facia's being put in behind the scaffolding... there is progress

I hjad a similar problem when water was flooding the pavement in Vancouver Road. TW said they could not stop it as it was coming from private land. I asked the Council to grit the ice that was forming and the leaky pipe was repaired.

Lets hope whatever they have built them out of doesn't mind being swamped Mary Rose style. We wouldn't have to worry about the price crashing if they end up crumbling like a soggy biscuit.

Loads of the flats on http://www.rightmove.com for sale now (maybe they have been for some time and I haven't noticed) - asking price for a one bed ground floor flat is still ?250k.

Chicken Licken, the sky is falling in....

75% fall? No chance! I think already prices have declined 25%, and maybe another 10-15% to come.

And any 3 bed for ?150k must be in a pretty grotty block. If you wanted anything which did not require 'modernisation', then ?250k a much more reasonable bet... for the moment!

I have been thinking about getting somewhere bigger, but better to sit tight for the moment I think.

Walking down London Road this morning past the Wetherspoon pub, I noticed for the first time that the new flats truncate the fine view from there of the much-admired steeple of what was Christ Church, Forest Hill. I think this is a great pity. I alway used to feel that being able to see our historic parish church from what is in effect our high street made a symbolic contribution to sustaining a sense of place in Forest Hill. I wonder if this was taken into account when planning permission was given? Perhaps it's a pity 'Save the Face of Forest Hill' wasn't around at the time!