Gazing at the Edifice today from platform 2 I noticed that work has recommenced on this site.

I had had 2 thoughts before noticing the scoffolding that was growing around the shell of the building

1. It already looks like an ancient monument. Perhaps English Heritage will list it soon.

2. Failing 1. above, the whole site might be improved by the introduction of a colony of barbary apes, as a counter attraction to the Horniman Gardens and Museum

Too funny, johnnyb7, too funny

I spoke to the developers. Apparently they are due for completion in Jan 2010. Currently the asking price is ?215k.

Unfortunately this is just reflective of the denial of property prices, especially flats.

I reckon they will eventually be sold off below ?80k, probably closer to ?60k.

I would probably pay GBP 60k for one of the flats.

Cant see them going for much less that ?150-?180 to be honest. Regardless of what the market is doing, it will recover over time, and they are prime units.

If they start selling them off below 80k I will definitely buy one (or two)!! I take it that you meant the price potentially going below 180k?

Who wouldnt snap them up for ?60k!! Anyone with cash or the ability to put a reasonable deposit down would get a fantasic return on their investment. 0% in the bank vs 10% in rental fees. It just wont happen.

However ?215k does seem optimisitc - I'd say ?150 lowest - eventually though the market will improve - it all depends on when the banks start lending again.

I do worry that since we are so soon out of the bubble peoples expectations remain high. ?150k is a totally untenable price. I know two people who have each bough bought 3-bed houses not more than 10 minutes walk out from there for less than ?150k in the last 6 months (one 6 months ago, one 1 week ago)

There is very little you can do with a 1 bed flat, they are simply not desirable.

I know it might appear than prices are still high. But the asking prices in the Estate agents window are currently a measure of denial not value. The houses that are actually selling are going for a lot less than the window price.

Sadly a 10 min walk knocks a massive amount off the value of a house. Given the tube extension is due to reach FH by 2010, the completion of the flats will go hand in hand with the launch of the line, and offer city workers the opportunity to live further out.

If anything I reckon the flats will sell to letting companies in the short term, with the sales being taken care of in the medium term. But I still dont see the prices dropping that much, not prices that people are suggesting.

Yes Snazy
But how many City Workers will there be then. Are not we already down 25% for Docklands and The Square Mile ?

Surely we are being overly optimistic to expect all these jobs to return.

In that case where are the buyers going to come from . Probably end of council buying with our money for single mums etc , but guess we will have to wait and see.

Brian, from what I can see, the city is shedding excess employees more than collapsing.
At the end of the day the whole economy revolves around banking, futures trading etc, so the system wil never fall into complete decline.

I would say there are still a LOT of people who would take these places once the time is right.

Just have to wait and see, but I cant see that Berkeley Homes would waste their money finishing the development if they were gonna lose 120k per unit.

Agree with all of the views expressing doubt as to how these units are going to be sellable even at a 25% discount.

Snazy - these aren't "prime units". If they were, why were only four flats sold from 2007 - autumn 2008 at the height of the housing boom? If people didn't want cramped, single aspect homes with no parking in an unattractive location then, why would they want them now?

However, great to hear that the building is going to be finished. Perhaps Berkeley Homes will now hand over the Section 106 money to Network Rail to repair the underpass that they have been hanging onto.

Firstly, our opinions differ somewhat, but I would not particularly say the time these units went on sale were the best times for the market. Personal opinion of course. There has been a slump on the horison for a long time now.
No parking? Im sure the plans show allocated parking within the complex.
Once the units are physically completed, they will sell, to let or to buy, but im sure they will sell.

25% discount from original asking price, maybe a bit more, but certainly not a 75% discount as some have suggested.

With regards to the monies for the underpass. I think you will find that the agreement is that the underpass will not be touched until the platform 2 exit is completed.

We are only one year into the slump, and prices from peak to trough are now widely predicted to fall 50%.

Now couple that with ?250k being widely seen as pushing it even at the peak of the market, plus the fact its always these type of properties that get decimated in the downturn. Remember, it is not even as if ?250k was a verifiable price since none were sold at that price.

In the last umpteen property crashes stretching back to the 18th century the crash has taken 3/4 years, followed by flat prices for another 4/5 years.

Already we are seeing family homes being sold for less than these pokey one bed flats. If they get ?150k I would be stunned. Indeed I suspect that you would not be willing to let your own kids buy one at ?150k. Not when you can buy better homes for less.

If they sell them for anything north of ?100k Berkley Homes would be doing very well. However, time will tell. General sentiment will not include the last vestiges of optimism in early 2010.

Lets revisit this thread in 6 months, when they start to look more like apartments, and buyers confidence begins to return
I can see people buying a number of units, granted at a discounted price, and the place becoming 80% rental units until the markets and economy settle.

The money is there for some, the confidence is not.

Like I say, I could well be very wrong ( I usually am lol) but im going out on a limb here and saying what I think.

*prepares to be wrong

Well the only time to really see will be when they actually start selling them.

But yes, lets see what happens.

Snazy - I've already marked the date in my diary! I agree that renting is the most likely outcome.

If we return to this question in six months or even a year I would be totally startled if "a number of units" have been sold.

On the question of Section 106 money for the underpass, the problem is more than just a delay for the gate to be completed.

Here is a copy of a note from Mick Hepworth at LBL dated 6th January:

I have been in contact with Network Rail with regard to the underpass works.

I have spoken to Berkeley Homes and they have informed me that they have not yet paid the relevant S106 money to Network Rail, to have their aspect of work undertaken. When this has finally been paid I will chase Network Rail for the work to be undertaken.

LBL are now chasing this money.

Dan on the Hill - 50% drop is widely reported! I have not seen this anywhere, average is about 30%.

Could you let me know wehere you have found 50% it would be interesting for some research i am doing?

Dan on the Hill - I just spotted your post above. Could you let me know how you got to your estimation that Berkeley would have to cut prices by 75% from peak (?250k) to trough (?60k) to sell the units.

This seems a little over the top?

I think that people are going to be very interested in how much the flats may be discounted by - and I agree with Snazy completely at about a 25% drop for them to be taken serioulsy. New, immaculate flats are very attractive to a large number of people in London that prefer/need comfortable easy living rather than a life of DIY and home improvements.

Very confused about Dan on the Hill's comments. Never seen a prediction of 50% fall, even from the gloomiest of market commentators! How did you arrive at this conclusion!? The general consensus seems to be 25% - 30% peak to trough, to be reached in late 2009 or perhaps early 2010.

I'd love to be able to pick one of the flats up for less than 150k. Just not going to happen! But, looking forward to waiting to revisit all this in the future too!