I think on balance this is good news for Forest Hill - having a skeletal hulk looming over the town centre is not good, although it is annoying that Berkeley Homes are not being required to stick to the original planning permission.

Berkeley homes look to have held Lewisham over a barrel on this one, but on balance it's got to be better for the area to have finished flats (even if they aren't fully occupied) than what we have at the moment.

It would be nice to think that now Lewisham has approved even more 1 bed flats, the council will be under less pressure to approve requests from Earlsfield Estates etc to convert more of the remaining houses in SE23 into flats. Wishful thinking, I know. Grumble, grumble, grumble...

Could not agree more mate.
The less they get their hands on, the better, before they make another one fall down.

OK, so 1 bed flats. What will they charge for them and can 1st time buyers afford them?

With more 1 beds we can get more young people who will hopfully frequent the improving bar / pub scene in FH.
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Love the post PVP, yes lets have loads more young people, who will stay a couple of years and hardly make a difference to the community (apart from there will be 70 less spaces on the train in the morning, but that will give even more to moan a about).

As for the improving bar/pub scene, can I look forward to more fights in the pubs up Dartmouth Road. The Blythe doesn't need improving being the best pub in the area, and like it or not YOHO has actually targetted people with young famlies during the earlier hours. Do we want to be another East Dulwich?

Fair points Baggydave. However, you're more likely to get young-ish (i.e. mid-late twenties) couples in one-bedroom flats than hooligans/thugs intent on brawling in the street. I'm sure our friends in Forest Hill's many delightful council estates are more than happy to look after the Dartmouth Road Saturday night fight scene.

Out of interest, what is YOHO?

Also, for what it is worth, comparing our ailing high street with East Dulwich and its fantastic selection of local amenities, yes, I think I would definitely want Forest Hill to be another East Dulwich on balance!

There is still no guarantee that Berkeleys will finish the work. They can indicate all they like but I will believe it when I see it.

The market is getting worse by the day and in the field of my own work valuers are telling us they won't guarantee valuations for longer than a calendar month, whereas previously this was 3-6 months.

Developers are pulling off site leaving many buildings half finished once they complete the superstructure because they can't pay for the labour , they can't guarantee the sales receipts, and the good cheap labour, ie Poles are going home and the native workforce is either too expensive or lacking the skills needed.

Roz
So building industry totally dependent on Polish people. Surely British building workers would rather work at the Polish rate than be unemployed and about time we trained some of the legions of unemployed to be builders.
This is where our education system is a failure. Seems to train 45% or so for uni and forget the rest. I Germany theses people are trained for such jobs as building , plumbing , engineers etc.
Roz are you saying Polish and native workers on the same site do not get paid the same???

Good news!! Men on site this morning, doing something-I don't know what-but looked like they were vacuuming up all the water that's presumably on the floors of the building.

That's extremely good news. Let's hope this development is completed.

It's unlikely that the flats at FH Central will be offered for sale. Only four of the flats were sold (deposits placed) up to July of this year. If the flats didn't sell at the height of the property boom they aint going to sell now.

Nor is it likely that Berkeley Homes will reduce their asking prices - you would need to take at least ?100,000 off the price of each unit to attract sales and any BH profit would largely go up in smoke. Nor are cramped, single aspect flats in an overdeveloped block such as this likely to command much of a premium in a market with so many other better located and spacious flats for the few first-time buyers to choose from.

There is still a strong rental market in the area. Surely, renting out the flats is the most likely outcome.

Does anyone know what the new street furniture opposite FH central is for.
I first thought for securing bicycles near station but seems quite a way from the station and I would not think a very safe area to leave bikes.
Any other ideas please

I think these are very well located flats. The prices were too high but when the housing market flatens out and people can get mortgages I am sure these flats will be in demand for buy to live and buy to let - if the price is right.

So Michael are you saying that you believe that when BH complete these flats - presumably some time in 2009 - they will be offering the flats for sale, and at very much reduced prices? What do you believe the reduction in price would have to be to make sales? And what sort of sense would such a strategy make in relation to BH's profits on this scheme?

They are bike racks. Agreed they might seem to be in a bit of a funny place now but if (and I know it's a big if!) Forest Hill Central ever gets finished and the ground floor has retail space then it's handy bike parking for any shops that might be along there - aswell as being handy for the existing shops along that stretch of road.

Thanks for explanantion. I guess they will not be used until then but if any shops opened would be good.

Nasaroc
Not sure anyone could answer your question at this time. Who knows what will happen to the units when completed , the main thing is that BH now complete will all haste.

I do not know what BH profit margins are, nor can I predict market prices in 2009 (I can't even predict them today). But I do think that BH, having invested in this scheme already and in money for 106 funding, will want to see some return on their investment. That is why there are people on site today and they have said that they will restart construction before Christmas.

It is noticable that while the immediate prospects for the housing market look grim, there are developers interested in building residential development in Tyson Road, Greyhound Pub, and other sites. I suspect that there will be people now realising that there are bargains in the property and stock markets, and starting to invest. When this happens I suspect there will be a flattening of prices.

The East London Line makes the area a better place to invest than most other parts of Southern England since we all know that property prices in South East London, and specifically in Brockely, Honor Oak, Forest Hill, and Sydenham have always been lower than other parts of London which do have tube connections.

But Michael - I would agree with every single word of your last posting.

The only point I am trying to make is that I believe that the current dire state of the housing market and the scarcity of mortages (particularly for new-build and for first-time buyers) will make BH decide that they will rent FH Central. Selling such units on even a modest scale will simply be a complete no-no in the next few years. The same goes for The Greyhound development which I believe is also being built with rental income in mind.

And there is nothing wrong with this approach, although it means a slower rate of return for investment for the developer. Indeed, many of the same people who, eighteen months ago would easily have been able to raise a no-deposit mortgage on good terms and now can't, are likely to be the new tenants at FH Central and other developments locally.

All I am saying is that renting is probably the only way forward for such developments and that sales aren't. Nothing else.

This from an industry publication;

"Berkeley's average house price in the latest six-month period has risen to ?399,000, higher than the previous figure of ?245,000 in the comparable period last year, thanks to 'cyclical thinking'.

Berkeley managing director, Tony Pidgley has won a reputation for out-guessing the peaks and troughs of the sector thanks, basically, to his vision of it being highly cyclical.

Two years ago Berkeley, and subsequently its shareholders, pocketed a huge sum by the selling off if its private housebuilding operation. The group was transformed into what it says is an "urban regeneration and residential property developer." Berkeley's interim results published today cover the six months to 31 October.

Mr Pidgley said: "In these market conditions, the most challenging for over 30 years, I am pleased to be in a position to report this robust set of results. Berkeley has always planned for a cyclical market and, with its strong un-geared balance sheet, is well placed to take advantage of the opportunities that will be presented in the future.

"We are concentrating on generating free cash flow and protecting the balance sheet. This builds the strength to withstand the more challenging times and to then take advantage of the opportunities that will follow. While I am pleased by these results, it is the cash generation of ?140m that is the outstanding feature of the performance in the period."

A summary of Berkeley's balance sheet shows no debt; no land write-downs; net cash of ?140m and ?810m of cash due on forward sales. Customers acquiring properties as an investment remain active and represent over 50% of Berkeley's sales in the first half of its financial year."

Speaking as a cyclist, I think the cycle stands are in a poor, isolated location and I am not sure they will be well used because there is not enough natural surveillance. I suspect they have been sited there by someone who does not cycle. Perhaps it will help if the retail units get let sometime in to the future.

Speaking as a driver, what is the point of the cushions and raised table on Perry Vale outside the underpass? They do nothing to slow down traffic so are a complete waste of money.