I think this is a sufficiently important issue for voters to try to consider the proposed change on its merits, rather than getting into speculation as to who has been plotting with who in smoke-free rooms and as to which party might do best out of AV in some hypothetical set of circumstances.

I think your view will be influenced by the importance you attach to maintaining a parliamentary system, with a close relationship between MPs and the community who elect them, and resisting the move towards a presidential system, where people vote for Cameron, Milliband or Clegg rather than Dowd, Phillips or Feakes.

If you're not concerned about this, you might favour a full-blown PR system such as STV, which enables 'the will of the nation' to be most accurately expressed. As that's not on offer, abstention in the referendum seems the best option.

If on the other hand you are, like me, in favour of a more local, community-based parliamentary system, the issue to consider is what the best way of choosing the community representative is. I think AV is better for this purpose than FPTP.

At a more instinctive level, I think there is a good case for saying that the present system for electing MPs could, other things being equal, do with a shake-up anyway. Anything that has a chance of connecting politicians better with the public, and thus of combatting the current levels of cynicism about politicians and the political process, must surely worth considering?