There are three significant challenges in the short term and these are interlinked.

The initial challenge is the commencement of construction work on the Thameslink programme at Blackfriars. The infrastructure changes here will result in a rolling stock cascade across the RUS area. This will be caused by the non-availability of platforms 1-3, requiring all services into Blackfriars to continue to operate northwards, resulting in an increase in the use of scarce dual voltage rolling stock. Implementation of this scheme is planned for early 2009. As a result, many stations will benefit from new direct journey opportunities beyond Blackfriars.

The second challenge is the opening of the East London Line extension (ELLX) to West Croydon and Crystal Palace. This scheme will provide significant capacity and new journey opportunities and is expected to be warmly welcomed by those benefiting from it. However it is incompatible with the current timetable structure and a major recast of services across the whole of the suburban area and Brighton Main Line will be necessary before ELL services can run. Much of the timetable development work undertaken for the RUS has sought to maximise the capacity that can be provided, responding to a range of peak crowding issues, rather than just fitting in the new ELL services. This new timetable will be introduced upon opening of the ELLX by mid 2010.

The third challenge is the introduction of a revised timetable structure on Southeastern routes from December 2009, in conjunction with implementation of domestic services to St Pancras on High Speed One. Southeastern?s original franchise commitments required them significantly to reduce suburban capacity on routes to Charing Cross at this time. However, the draft RUS highlighted that this would exacerbate already severe overcrowding and recommended that some additional services be run. The Department for Transport has since agreed with Southeastern that they maintain services at broadly current levels into established terminals.

The combined effect of the above is that most passengers will experience significant changes in train timetables between now and 2010, generally maintaining at least current levels of service, with some areas seeing major improvements.

There has been very high peak growth on the Sydenham route to London Bridge where, comparing 2006 with 2005, a 14% increase in capacity was outstripped by a 20% increase in demand. ... Given that most passengers on this route wish to travel to the City of London or the West End and given the existing severe crowding, the wisdom of running additional 4 car trains on the ELL has to be questioned and can only be efficient if it is impossible to run extra trains to London Bridge or beyond. A way needs to be found to achieve 8 trains per hour to Central London from the Sydenham line at the height of the peak.