I did get a response from TfL which I had forgotten to post up here.
Currently there are three direct routes for traffic on B238 Honor Oak Road to access the A205 South Circular in this area. These are Honor Oak Road, Devonshire Road and Brockley Rise. As you point out, if a banned right turn were to be introduced on Devonshire Road this would increase the volume of traffic using Honor Oak Road and Brokley Rise. However, both of these roads already have high traffic volumes particularly in the peak periods, and additional vehicles could lead to further congestion. It may also increase traffic on smaller residential roads. Furthermore, it is a concern that a significant diversion would be required for right turning vehicles both into and out of Devonshire Road, particularly for residents that live on this road itself.
If a banned turn were to be introduced it would need to be enforced to ensure compliance with the restriction. However, as there is no camera with a clear view of the junction mouth, movements at the junction could not be effectively enforced.
We have looked into the latest 36 months of personal injury collision data available for this junction, up to December 2009. There have been two collisions, one of which involved a pedal cycle turning right into Devonshire Road. Based on the number of collisions we could not justify banning this movement into Devonshire Road on safety grounds.
Thank you for taking the time to write to us. I appreciate this might not be a response you will welcome however, I hope you will accept the rationale behind our decision.
Some interesting points are made here although I do find it almost amusing that there will not consider installing a new restriction without a camera at the junction, given the difficulty we have had pursuading the council that more enforcement was required on Manor Mount one way section.