IWereAbsolutelyFuming, you make some fair points regarding the figures but surely you need to judge the strength of the second place against Labour, not the Conservatives, after all second place is not a end in itself it is about closing the gap on the incumbent. In this sense the gap has been reduced from 19% to 13%, mainly due to a swing from Labour to Conservative (although the BBC shows this as a swing to the Lib Dems because they are in second place).

What will be interesting to see is what happens if AV is introduced and new boundaries are drawn yet again. Certainly the local and national results should be less predictable than in the 2010 election.