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General election forum
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IWereAbsolutelyFuming


Posts: 531
Joined: Oct 2007
Post: #101
12-06-2010 10:37 PM

Latest Lib Dem 'Focus' flyer through the door. Am I missing something? To quote Alex Feakes in the flyer, the Lib Dems saw a "big increase" in their vote in Lewisham West and Penge. Most parties saw a reasonable increase in the number of votes they got thanks to the boundary change and a 10.5% increase in the turnout over 2005. Lib Dems share of vote increased by just 1%. "Big"?

Second, "we strengthened our second place". The boundary change makes this one a bit difficult to judge. Yes the difference in share between the Lib Dems and Tories has gone from 0.9% in the old Lewisham West constituency to 2.6% after the boundary change. But the increase in the Tory share was 3.9% compared to the Lib Dems 1%. In the run up to the election the Lib Dem literature always stated that "the tories couldn't win round here". The figures don't back that up as far as I'm concerned.

As someone who cant envisage voting Tory I feel odd posting that last bit. Alex, Philip, I know you read these forums so feel free to put me straight. At the moment I feel distrusting of the literature you're putting through my letterbox.

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michael


Posts: 3,223
Joined: Mar 2005
Post: #102
13-06-2010 12:20 PM

IWereAbsolutelyFuming, you make some fair points regarding the figures but surely you need to judge the strength of the second place against Labour, not the Conservatives, after all second place is not a end in itself it is about closing the gap on the incumbent. In this sense the gap has been reduced from 19% to 13%, mainly due to a swing from Labour to Conservative (although the BBC shows this as a swing to the Lib Dems because they are in second place).

What will be interesting to see is what happens if AV is introduced and new boundaries are drawn yet again. Certainly the local and national results should be less predictable than in the 2010 election.

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chick pea


Posts: 10
Joined: Nov 2009
Post: #103
13-06-2010 04:36 PM

Boundaries changes are not new. Back in the '70s the biggest baddest Shire of them all had been a stumbling block to Mr Heath's party progress and so it was decreed, through the local government act of 1972, that the red Riding's hoods be carved up. Large areas of less populated countryside containing the more affluent and the landowners became one county and smaller but highly populated areas another. Part of the particularly populous yet very red North Riding, Teeside, was given the bum's rush out of the Shire of York and renamed Cleveland County. A cunning move that left the rest of the North Riding vulnerable to Mrs Thatcher's charms. Nowt so queer as folk eh!

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roz


Posts: 1,796
Joined: Mar 2005
Post: #104
13-06-2010 09:33 PM

The so called ' big' increase seems to have led to fewer Lib Dem council seats throughout Lewisham. Clearly not ' big' enough.

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IWereAbsolutelyFuming


Posts: 531
Joined: Oct 2007
Post: #105
13-06-2010 10:35 PM

Fair point Michael, I guess I was coming from a sporting perspective where 'strengthening second place' would mean putting more space between yourself and whoever is behind you.

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