I wouldn't describe predicting a drop in the housing market for 'over 10 years' as scaremongering. It does however smack of backing the inevitable. Housing markets always suffer downturns - the art lies in predicting them with an accuracy of somewhat less than a decade.

I think someone who held off buying a house in 1998 based on such concerns would feel pretty peeved today. They would have lost out big time on the 'ladder' even allowing for the total 30% fall you suggest!

And here's my prediction. Sometime in the next 10 years the market will go up again. Remember folks, you heard it here first!!