Well there is evidence.

In their newly published documents we see that if their plan goes ahead with extended operating hours, aircraft movements of around 70,000 per year increase by 2031 to 110,000.
In 2024 they see 5 million passengers per year and by 2031 they reach 9 million.

perhaps we can all make up our own minds to what extent this represents expansion or not.

They want to achieve this by flying more earlier in the morning, more later in the evening and then Saturday afternoons and evenings too. Rather than by doing whatever they need to do for their business within their currently permitted hours.

And they have declined to complete the redesign of their low altitude concentrated path over SE23 and introduce respite routes before applying for or implementing this change.