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Housing Shortage
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Azira


Posts: 33
Joined: Mar 2014
Post: #1
01-12-2015 09:39 PM

[Split from SE23 Topics > Taymount Grange Planning Proposal -admin]
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I'm curious - what is the evidence for the desperate shortage of homes (genuine q, not stirring)?

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152047


Posts: 124
Joined: Jan 2011
Post: #2
01-12-2015 10:31 PM

It is a good question.

- Clearly some people are living on the street but I don't think anymore than 30 years ago.

- Large numbers of would be house buyers have been priced out the market and have to rent.

- An increasing number in the above category are living with their parents much longer than they would want.

- There are some (I don't know how many) who are living in chronically overcrowded accommodation.

So you could say the shortage of housing is in fact:

- the effect of the buy to let market and on a polemic level the ability of those with wealth to invest it and earn a return at the expense of generation rent;

- the result of an ageing population and changing demographics resulting in elderly singles or couples living in housing stock that might be larger than they need or certainly for longer than was the case 60 years ago;

- the result of economic growth the associated immigration especially in London.

I don't know if there are any reliable statistics but I wonder what would be the effect on house prices and demand for housing if all of the buy to let properties were put on the market.

Certainly if you make buy to let unattractive as an option (for both UK taxpayers and overseas investors) then you could reduce demand and therefore prices but I guess you would have to be very careful to avoid putting recent buyers into negative equity.

For the elderly even if they wanted to move (and why should they?) there is probably a shortage of suitable alternative accommodation for them. A thirty storey tower block is probably not the ideal choice for your retirement.

Immigration? Well we all get a vote next year so no need to say anymore.

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Perryman


Posts: 809
Joined: Dec 2006
Post: #3
02-12-2015 11:45 AM

Quote:
Immigration? Well we all get a vote next year so no need to say anymore.

If only it were that simple.

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152047


Posts: 124
Joined: Jan 2011
Post: #4
02-12-2015 01:16 PM

Perryman, you are of course right.

You only have to look at Switzerland to see that. Although outside the EU as a member of the EEA they currently accept freedom of movement for EU citizens.

If the UK voted to leave I am pretty sure we would end up in a similar position of having to accept things like freedom of movement (but maybe with quotas) in return for unimpeded access to EU markets.

Immigration can't be removed from the economic reality that people have always migrated to where the jobs are and for economies to grow you sometimes need those migrants.

At the same time in any negotiation you are more likely to get a better deal if the other party knows you are willing to walk away. In other words if you are not willing to vote to leave you will get nada/rien/gar nichts from our European cousins.

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derbybill


Posts: 122
Joined: Jan 2010
Post: #5
02-12-2015 07:07 PM

There is an interesting article on the BBC website right now about the vast numbers of empty properties in the UK - more than 600,000 houses/flats.

At least 200,000 properties have been empty for more than six months. This may be deliberate (they show an apartment block in the City of London where half of the apartments are unoccupied). This is the rich investing their cash and waiting for prices to rise. The article also shows houses for sale for ONE POUND in an abandoned street in Liverpool. If you buy a one-pound house, then you have to "do it up" and make it habitable.

It would be interesting to count all the holiday homes around the country that are only occupied for weekends or the summer season (I have seen whole holiday villages in Cornwall, complete with with a pub, that shut down for many months of the year). So maybe there is no housing shortage at all, it's just that the properties are in the wrong place!

Don't be fooled by the crazy increases in London and SE England prices: in some parts of the UK prices are static or even dropping.

And in rural France prices have been steadily dropping by about 2 - 3% per year because of a glut of property and the dire state of the French economy.

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Azira


Posts: 33
Joined: Mar 2014
Post: #6
02-12-2015 07:45 PM

I've seen a report that suggests that overcrowding occurs in less than 3% of properties, but nothing else corroborative. I'd be very interested to see what the stats are on whether people are unable to get a place to live at all.

It strikes me that when the media reports on the housing shortage and housing crisis, they mean a shortage of housing stock for purchase by folk who want to live in a particular area, rather than an inability to find somewhere to live.

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Azira


Posts: 33
Joined: Mar 2014
Post: #7
02-12-2015 07:48 PM

Quote:
Posted by Perryman - Today 11:45 AM
Quote:

Immigration? Well we all get a vote next year so no need to say anymore.

If only it were that simple.


Indeed. If we get a Brexit, we're going to have bigger fish to fry. In fact, I can see a huge amount of stock coming back onto the market via repos...

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