As the original poster I did have good sources, pub manager telling the staff it was going to close and become a cinema in 3-6 weeks, and so thought it was 99% likely happen. Especially as most of the staff were offered jobs in other pubs.
I would now estimate the likelihood at about 90% as things seemed to have slowed down at the negotiation stage.
However, here is some completely unfounded "heard it in the pub" gossip - Wetherspoons will take over the ex-Harvester Grove Tavern.